Preseason Rankings
Atlantic 10
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
47 Dayton 50.1%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 7 12 - 6 +10.0      +6.2 35 +3.8 79 67.6 221 0.0 1 0.0 1
52 Saint Louis 41.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 7 12 - 5 +9.8      +4.0 71 +5.8 36 67.6 222 0.0 1 0.0 1
53 Richmond 49.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 12 - 6 +9.8      +5.9 40 +3.9 74 70.2 135 0.0 1 0.0 1
81 Davidson 22.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 9 11 - 7 +6.9      +4.9 58 +2.0 112 62.5 324 0.0 1 0.0 1
85 St. Bonaventure 23.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 9 10 - 7 +6.4      +4.1 68 +2.3 103 63.6 304 0.0 1 0.0 1
90 Duquesne 21.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 9 10 - 7 +6.0      +3.7 79 +2.2 105 67.9 208 0.0 1 0.0 1
93 Rhode Island 19.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 12 10 - 8 +5.7      +2.5 106 +3.2 85 74.8 47 0.0 1 0.0 1
99 Virginia Commonwealth 17.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 12 8 - 8 +5.2      +0.5 154 +4.7 62 70.7 126 0.0 1 0.0 1
123 George Mason 6.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 8 - 10 +2.8      +1.1 137 +1.6 117 66.8 239 0.0 1 0.0 1
128 Massachusetts 6.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 11 7 - 8 +2.3      +2.4 109 -0.2 171 69.6 152 0.0 1 0.0 1
157 La Salle 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 13 6 - 9 +0.1      -0.6 189 +0.7 147 70.8 122 0.0 1 0.0 1
174 Saint Joseph's 1.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 17 6 - 12 -0.8      +2.1 122 -2.8 255 75.1 46 0.0 1 0.0 1
198 George Washington 0.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 15 5 - 12 -2.3      -1.6 215 -0.7 195 65.8 259 0.0 1 0.0 1
201 Fordham 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 15 5 - 13 -2.6      -6.2 322 +3.6 80 62.2 327 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Dayton 3.7 27.5 17.3 12.8 10.5 8.0 6.8 5.3 3.9 2.9 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2
Saint Louis 4.0 21.8 17.3 14.1 11.8 9.4 7.3 5.6 4.2 3.1 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.2
Richmond 3.6 26.9 18.9 13.6 10.3 8.1 6.3 4.9 3.8 2.6 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.1
Davidson 4.8 16.3 14.0 12.8 10.8 9.5 8.7 7.0 5.8 4.7 3.4 2.8 2.1 1.4 0.7
St. Bonaventure 5.9 7.9 9.6 10.3 10.7 10.9 10.1 8.8 8.3 6.8 5.3 4.2 3.3 2.3 1.4
Duquesne 5.8 7.9 10.2 10.4 11.2 10.9 10.5 9.2 8.1 6.5 5.0 4.2 2.8 2.0 1.0
Rhode Island 5.8 9.2 9.9 10.6 10.5 10.5 9.7 9.0 7.9 6.6 5.3 4.4 3.0 2.2 1.2
Virginia Commonwealth 7.9 2.6 4.3 5.3 6.7 7.8 8.7 9.4 10.2 10.3 9.7 8.5 7.6 5.7 3.3
George Mason 7.3 4.0 5.2 6.9 8.0 9.1 9.7 9.8 9.4 8.9 8.2 6.9 6.3 4.5 2.9
Massachusetts 9.1 0.9 1.8 2.8 4.2 5.7 6.9 8.0 9.3 10.6 10.9 11.3 11.3 9.8 6.6
La Salle 10.2 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.0 3.5 4.6 5.8 8.1 9.6 11.9 13.3 13.7 13.4 11.7
Saint Joseph's 9.7 1.0 1.8 2.6 3.4 4.8 5.3 6.8 8.0 8.6 10.1 11.1 12.0 13.0 11.5
George Washington 10.7 0.3 0.6 1.3 1.9 2.9 3.8 5.1 6.5 8.1 9.8 12.0 13.5 16.6 17.6
Fordham 10.5 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.3 3.0 4.1 5.2 6.7 8.3 9.8 11.8 12.6 14.7 18.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Dayton 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.5 5.5 7.6 9.4 11.1 12.2 12.6 11.9 9.6 6.7 3.9 1.2
Saint Louis 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 4.2 6.0 8.1 10.7 12.4 13.4 13.1 11.9 8.4 5.0 1.8
Richmond 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.5 5.4 6.9 9.1 11.7 12.7 13.2 12.3 9.7 6.6 3.6 1.1
Davidson 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.8 4.0 6.5 8.0 9.9 11.2 11.5 11.8 10.6 8.4 6.5 3.8 1.6 0.5
St. Bonaventure 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.9 4.4 6.4 9.1 10.9 11.6 12.6 11.7 10.1 8.1 5.1 2.8 1.4 0.3
Duquesne 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 3.9 6.2 8.7 10.6 12.4 12.8 12.1 10.4 7.8 5.8 3.2 1.2 0.3
Rhode Island 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 2.8 4.3 6.5 8.9 10.4 11.6 12.2 11.0 10.0 8.2 5.7 3.5 1.8 0.8 0.1
Virginia Commonwealth 8 - 10 0.3 1.0 2.6 4.3 6.7 9.5 11.3 12.7 12.6 11.3 9.4 7.5 5.2 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.1
George Mason 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.2 5.4 7.8 10.1 11.5 12.1 12.0 10.9 8.7 6.3 4.6 2.9 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1
Massachusetts 7 - 11 0.5 1.9 4.5 7.6 10.3 12.6 13.0 13.1 11.4 9.4 6.6 4.7 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.1
La Salle 6 - 12 1.0 3.6 7.0 10.4 13.2 15.1 13.7 12.1 9.2 6.9 4.0 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 6 - 12 1.3 4.0 6.2 10.0 11.9 12.2 12.7 10.6 9.9 7.3 5.6 3.7 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
George Washington 5 - 13 2.0 5.7 9.9 13.1 13.7 13.6 12.6 9.9 7.4 5.3 3.2 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
Fordham 5 - 13 2.0 5.7 9.3 12.2 13.3 13.1 12.3 10.0 7.8 5.1 3.8 2.6 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Dayton 27.5% 18.4 7.0 1.7 0.4 0.0
Saint Louis 21.8% 13.6 6.1 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Richmond 26.9% 17.5 7.0 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Davidson 16.3% 10.2 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.0
St. Bonaventure 7.9% 4.5 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 7.9% 4.4 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Rhode Island 9.2% 5.4 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 2.6% 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
George Mason 4.0% 2.0 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 0.9% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
La Salle 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
George Washington 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Dayton 50.1% 19.0% 31.1% 11   1.6 2.2 2.1 3.0 2.8 2.9 4.1 3.9 6.1 7.6 7.1 5.1 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 49.9 38.4%
Saint Louis 41.4% 17.2% 24.1% 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.4 2.0 2.6 3.1 3.4 4.8 5.8 6.8 5.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 58.6 29.2%
Richmond 49.3% 18.3% 31.0% 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.8 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.6 6.5 7.0 7.1 5.6 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 50.7 37.9%
Davidson 22.8% 9.6% 13.2% 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.4 3.2 4.1 4.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 77.2 14.6%
St. Bonaventure 23.5% 8.4% 15.1% 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.7 2.9 3.5 4.7 4.7 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 76.5 16.5%
Duquesne 21.2% 7.5% 13.6% 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.6 3.4 4.1 4.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 78.8 14.8%
Rhode Island 19.7% 6.9% 12.7% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.4 2.8 3.8 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 80.3 13.7%
Virginia Commonwealth 17.7% 5.3% 12.4% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.4 2.6 3.0 3.5 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 82.3 13.1%
George Mason 6.7% 2.8% 3.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 93.3 4.0%
Massachusetts 6.3% 2.2% 4.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 93.7 4.2%
La Salle 2.0% 0.9% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.0 1.2%
Saint Joseph's 1.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.2 0.8%
George Washington 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.1 0.4%
Fordham 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.3 0.3%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Dayton 50.1% 4.8% 47.5% 25.5% 10.5% 4.8% 2.0% 0.6% 0.3%
Saint Louis 41.4% 4.6% 39.1% 21.2% 8.4% 3.4% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Richmond 49.3% 5.4% 46.5% 24.6% 9.7% 3.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Davidson 22.8% 3.8% 20.9% 9.6% 3.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
St. Bonaventure 23.5% 4.4% 21.1% 9.2% 3.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Duquesne 21.2% 3.7% 19.1% 8.4% 2.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Rhode Island 19.7% 3.3% 18.0% 7.7% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 17.7% 3.0% 16.1% 6.6% 1.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
George Mason 6.7% 1.4% 5.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 6.3% 1.5% 5.4% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 2.0% 0.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 1.8% 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 0.9% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.6 11.6 34.9 34.7 15.6 2.8 0.3 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.4 0.0 15.8 39.3 31.7 11.3 1.8 0.2
2nd Round 77.3% 1.2 22.7 44.5 25.8 6.3 0.7 0.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 37.8% 0.4 62.2 32.0 5.4 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 16.5% 0.2 83.5 15.7 0.8 0.0
Final Four 6.9% 0.1 93.1 6.7 0.1
Final Game 2.6% 0.0 97.4 2.6 0.0
Champion 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9